The Iranians are in deep problems in spite of having rich
minerals resources: the fall of the rial, some 40% unemployment among the
youngest, cuts in social benefits, ethnic grievances, only a 15% female
participation in the labor force, etc. No less than one and a half million
clerics are teaching the Koran, but the 1979 revolution has failed. The government
relies for approximately 80 percent of its tax revenue on the oil industry and
there has been a 35 percent reduction in Iranian oil exports since April. The
country’s active work force is 26 million, of whom at least 10 million are
estimated to be jobless.
In 1970, years before the Islamic revolution, Iran produced
some 7% of the world oil production, now it went down to less than 5%.
This should not come as a surprise if we take into account
the Islamist character of the regime, which has failed also everywhere else:
Turkey, Gaza, etc. Iran’s economy is too much dependent on oil and 45% of the
Iranian economy belongs to the government. Only about a fifth of the Iranian economy is
in private hands. The World Bank 2018 Doing Business Report ranks Iran in place
124.
The lack of attraction of Iran to foreign investment is
clearly related to its efforts to export their Islamist ideology and its
military support for Shiite factions mainly in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Its Holocaust denial and genocidal attitude towards Israel puts them also in a
bad light.
The West sanctions caused that even the Indian state-owned Chennai
Petroleum (CPCL) announced that its refineries would be among the latest to
stop processing Iranian oil altogether. This move involved the cancellation of
a one million barrel order that was already in place for the month of October.
The latest terror attack in Ahvaz should also put in light
the more general problem of Iran’s ethnic diversity. In particular, we should
remember that a quarter of the population – the Azeri minority in the region of
Tabriz – is of Turkish origin.
