Egypt is undergoing a serious economic, social, political,
military, and diplomatic crisis. Egypt has a larger population than Iran, but
its economy is smaller, and it is a country with a not negligible geostrategic
importance because of its location between Africa and Asia.
Currently Egypt is not able to feed properly its population,
neither to provide it with enough employment. It is estimated that some 35 –
40% of Egypt's population is earning less than the equivalent of two dollars a
day. Egypt has a population of over 90 million, and whilst the official figures
for unemployment are of 27%, estimates put the number at a minimum of 40%.
Recently the government devaluated the Egyptian pound by nearly half of its
value. A veteran writer on Egyptian affairs has described last month the
situation of the sugar deliverances as follows: “Sugar supplies have dwindled.
Supermarkets and shops have run out, long queues are forming outside government
cooperatives, and prices have doubled over the last few weeks. The state-owned
Food Industries Holding Company has been reduced to rationing meagre sugar
supplies to the food processing industry, especially soft drink makers, to keep
factories running.” (cfr.
http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/patrick-werr-sugar-shortage-in-egypt-leaves-a-bitter-taste#full) Tourism, another key factor in the Egyptian
economy, is also under a severe crisis due that because of security concerns
England canceled its flights to Sharm el-Sheikh and Russia canceled altogether
its flights to Egypt.
Politically, Egypt’s power elite is divided between on one
side President al-Sissi, backed by the Central Intelligence, and on the other
the Armed Forces and the Military Intelligence. There seems to be no danger
currently of another coup, because the fear of total political and economic
collapse enhance the preference for a smooth leadership transition in the next
few years. It is within this framework that we must see the call of some army
officials to al-Sissi not to run for reelection in 2018.
The national security is challenged by the extremist armed
actions in the Sinai Peninsula, in especial the Islamic State group. The army
is having difficulty to cleanse the area due to its mountainous character and
the presence of some highly trained terrorist insiders among Bedouin tribes who
are difficult to track down.
If all this wasn’t enough, things got worse with the Cairo
rejection of participating in the Saudi-led coalition battering the Shiite
Houthis and their vote for a Russian resolution on Syria. As a result, last
month Saudi Aramco decided to stop the transfer of discounted oil to Egypt.
In spite of everything, Egypt is still considered a leading
power in the Arab world. The eyes are put now in the new incoming
administration in Washington, to see if and how it will help Egypt, or if it
will keep the retreatment path of the Obama policy. Trump will have to
understand that the price of isolationism is the enhancement of the danger of
pushing Egypt into Russian or Iranian arms.
