The Syria
ceasefire agreement was signed by the United States and Russia but its
implementation has to overcome the mosaic of conflicting interests in the
framework of a cruel war that already claimed more than 300 thousand dead, more
than two millions wounded, and drive more than half of the country's citizens
away from their homes.
The main
victim of the Syrian war has been the notion of a Syrian nation, if there ever
was one.
The Damascus
ruling Alawites are a 12-13% minority, but they level their numeric
inferiority with the support of the Shiite camp, led by Iran with the
involvement of its proxy Hezbollah, and the backing and military aid on the
ground from Russia. The Alawites were originally known as the
"Nusayris," and became established along the Mediterranean coast
under the Shiite Hamdanid dynasty. The French colonial regime favored the
Alawites in order to balance power against the majority Sunnis and their
Ottoman backers. In the present situation, the term "the Assad regime"
no longer refers to a state's regime but to this ethnic group controlling certain
areas across what used to be Syria.
The Sunni
Arabs of Syria constitute about 60% of the population but are divided into
dozens of militias, few of which are jihadist (like ISIS, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham
and others), that receive support from the Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia,
and recently from the US as well.
The Kurds in
northern Syria, constitute about 9% of the population, or approximately 1.6
million people, and are fighting the Islamic State, but oppose the regime as
well. They are supported today by the US and other Western states, but are
attacked by Turkey, which sees a Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria as a threat
to its interests.
In what
makes up to the foreign forces, the US is interested in seeing in Syria a
moderate Sunni regime leaning towards the West, but, due to the Obama’s
administration policy of neo-isolationism, has so far hesitated to put any
significant effort into that task. Russia supports the continued existence of
an Alawite minority regime for fear that the alternative would lead to Moscow
losing its foothold on the ground. Turkey would like to see a Sunni regime in
Damascus, but is busy fighting the Kurds. That is the reason why Recep Tayyip
Erdogan's regime supported ISIS for such a long time and allowed jihadists from
around the world to flock to Syria so that they would join the war and strike
the Kurds. Israel does whatever it can to keep itself out of the conflict but
for humanitarian medical help and military responses to any fire on Israeli
territory, including accidental fire.
This mosaic
of opposing interests makes not only difficult the complete implementation of
the ceasefire, but poses also serious problems in Syria’s long term future. The
concept of a Syrian Homeland – Watan - was first convened in the late 19th
century by a group of Christian-Arab intellectuals, headed by Butrus al-Bastani.
He was born in 1819 of a Lebanese Maronite Christian family in the village of
Dibbiye in the Chouf region, Lebanon. But, divided among different ethnic and
religious groups, the idea of a Syrian nation seems something not to be
accomplished in the near future. The division of what once was Syria into
different emirates or ethnic enclaves is not necessarily a danger, but could be
a pragmatic solution.
